You're on this game show ..... "The Big Birding Game Show" actually. There's 3 closed doors in front of you. One of them opens up to a FREE birding trip to any country in the world ! The other two doors open up to reveal a week's supply of peanuts. The host asks you to choose a door .... up you go and grasp the handle. But you don't get to open it .... but you've made your choice. The host walks up and opens another door .... .... and that one has the peanuts behind it.. ( The Host knows which doors are which ... so he knows where the peanuts are) So now, there's two doors "in use" .. one open, and one being held onto. And one still closed, all on its own. The "3rd" one. At this point, there are still 2 closed doors .... and a visible goat at the open one. Now you, the contestant, has a choice to make.... So .... 1 of the closed doors has a car behind it .... and the other has a goat . Then he asks the contestant, who is still holding on to his door-handle .. " Do you want to open your door, or do you want to switch to the other one ?" SO ... ARE YOU BETTER OFF WITH THE DOOR YOU PICKED ? OR SHOULD YOU GO TO THE OTHER UNOPENED ONE ? IT'S YOUR CHOICE ! TRICKY OR WHAT !! We're going to have a bit of music now ... to soothe the Seething Brain ! It is supposed to be the saddest song in the world.... That problem I've set you is the "bird" version of The Monty Hall Paradox. The original "prizes" were a car and two goats. So it is also known the the Car and Goats Paradox. There are TRILLIONS of videos about it, all trying to explain it. But I've found the best one ... the one that reveals why what seems to be the wrong answer is in fact the right one. Mind you, you won't like it ! I would love to see your comments about it ..... it is so baffling !!!!! It has caused huge arguments between many top mathematicians !
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AuthorThat's the author up there ... I was young and sprightly then. Archives
October 2022
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